Will “Ceasefire” be said on The Briefing next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on The Briefing in 2 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 10, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 8, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Briefing with Jen Psaki
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Ceasefire” said on The Briefing?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Ceasefire” was said on The Briefing in 2 of 5 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 10, 2026 (40%), most recently on Jun 3, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ceasefire” is said on The Briefing next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Briefing: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-briefing-with-jen-psaki/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-briefing-with-jen-psaki&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP