The Briefing with Jen Psaki: Episode, Apr 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Jen Psaki say during her show?
Markets
18 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TSA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPSAKIMENTION-26APR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP