NewsNation: Episode, Jun 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Kash Patel & Todd Blanche say during Katie Pavlich Tonight?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bipartisan / Partisan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Summer Heat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNEWSNATIONMENTION-26JUN04B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP