Will “ICE / National Guard” be said on The Late Show next time?

As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on The Late Show in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

38%from settlement history only · n=2counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

ICE / National Guard

Probability
38% · n=2
Settled
1/2 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for The Late Show with Stephen Colbert yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jan 21, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiYes
Jan 13, 2026ICE / National GuardKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “ICE / National Guard” said on The Late Show?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on The Late Show in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026.
What is the probability “ICE / National Guard” is said on The Late Show next time?
38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Late Show: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP