The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: Episode, Jan 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie Sanders say during The Late Show with Stephen Colbert?
Markets
12 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 50%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mayor / Mamdani | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland / Venezuela | Yes | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCOLBERTMENTION-26JAN21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP