The Late Show with Stephen Colbert: Episode, Nov 5, 2025
Kalshi What will Michelle Obama say during The Late Show With Stephen Colbert?
Markets
12 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barack | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Book | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Campaign | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Daughter | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCOLBERTMENTION-25NOV05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP