Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Feb 20, 2026

By Feb 20RemarksHistory onlyZohran Mamdani

Updated

Markets

18 words · 8 settled yes

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultProbabilityMarket
Commissioner Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Funding Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Million / Billion 3+ timesYes–new new word, no probability yet–
New York / New Yorker 5+ timesYes–new new word, no probability yet–
Support Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Wall Street Yes–new new word, no probability yet–
Budget Yes38%n=10 from settlement history–
Transparency Yes25%n=3 from settlement history–
Rent / Landlord No56%n=5 from settlement history–
DOJ No–new new word, no probability yet–
Minnesota / Minneapolis No–new new word, no probability yet–
Mission No–new new word, no probability yet–
People 5+ timesNo–new new word, no probability yet–
Spring / Summer No–new new word, no probability yet–
Working Family No–new new word, no probability yet–
President / Trump No37%n=11 from settlement history–
Free Bus No26%n=3 from settlement history–
MTA No17%n=8 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.

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