# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-11-30 (settled) · 21 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-in-november · as_of 2026-10-27T19:30:06Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-11-30 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-in-november (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Tylenol	tylenol	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Steroid	steroid	2	1	0.5	nY	0.53	hist	0	0	no	1
Laptop	laptop	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	29	13	0.45	nYnYYnnYYn	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Pope	pope	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.5	hist	0	0	no	1
Crooked Joe	crooked joe	1	0	0	n	0.5	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bernie / Sanders	bernie|sander	0	0			0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
N word	n word	1	0	0	n	0.41	hist	0	0	no	1
Fuck / Fucking / Fucked	fuck|fucked|fucking	0	0			0.37	hist	0	0	no	1
Bitcoin	bitcoin	11	1	0.09	nnnnnYnnnn	0.33	hist	0	0	yes	1
Peanut	peanut	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	0.23	hist	0	0	yes	1
Thanksgiving	thanksgiving	1	1	1	Y	0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Banana Republic	banana republic	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Candy from a baby	candy from a baby	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Ethiopia / Uruguay	ethiopia|uruguay	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Ice Cream	ice cream	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
IQ Test	iq test	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1
Mop / Mopped	mop|mopped	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Mustache	mustache	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Refrigerator	refrigerator	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	no	1
Waitress	waitress	0	0			0.51	prior	0	0	yes	1