Will Donald Trump say “Fire”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fire” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 24, 2025.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Fire
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Fire |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Fire”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Fire” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 24, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Fire” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Fire’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/fire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=fire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP