# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2024-08-22 (settled) · 12 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc · as_of 2026-10-27T10:30:53Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2024-08-22 · tn/th blank: no posts window transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-during-final-night-of-dnc (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market on predicting what Donald Trump will post on social media during the final night of the Democratic National Convention.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Black	black	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto	crypto	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Bitcoin/BTC	bitcoin|btc	1	0	0			0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Beautiful	beautiful	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Border 3+ times	border#3	3	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	yes	1
Communist	communist	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Comrade Kamala 3+ times	comrade kamala#3	3	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Crazy	crazy	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	yes	1
Laugh/Laughing	laugh|laughing	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	yes	1
Tax	tax	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1
Unrealized gains	unrealized gain	1	0	0			0.41	prior	0	0	no	1