What is the probability “Gaza” appears on the NYT front page next time?

44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “Gaza” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “Gaza” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “Gaza” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 31, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 02:18 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Gaza

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Wednesday, October 14otherNYT front-page headlines, October 12–18, 2026 · Oct 18, 2026In transcript

Near Gaza, Sharp Split Over Netanyahu as Election Looms

Thursday, October 8otherNYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026In transcript

Talking of Painful Day, but Also of ‘Ongoing Genocide’ in Gaza

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
May 31, 2026	Gaza	Polymarket	No

Questions

How often does “Gaza” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 25, 2026, “Gaza” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 31, 2026.
What is the probability “Gaza” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 44%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Gaza’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/gaza (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=gaza · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP