# Joe Biden (joe-biden) · speech 2025-01-15 · 19 words · P p:what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address · as_of 2026-10-26T08:29:13Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-01-15 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-biden-say-during-farewell-address (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market on predictions regarding the content of President Biden's farewell address.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Inflation	inflation	1	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	no
Kamala Harris	kamala harris	1	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	yes
Hunter	hunter	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.37	hist	no
Folks 3+ times	folk#3	3	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.36	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.35	hist	yes
Old	old	1	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.3	hist	no
Pardon	pardon	1	1	0	0	n	0.28	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	1	0	0	n	0.28	hist	no
Malarkey	malarkey	1	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.27	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.23	hist	no
Jill	jill	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.22	hist	no
Afghanistan	afghanistan	1	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Democracy 4+ times	democracy#4	4	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Felon	felon	1	0	0			0.33	prior	no
God 3+ times	god#3	3	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Hope 3+ times	hope#3	3	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Peaceful Transition	peaceful transition	1	0	0			0.33	prior	no