All-In Podcast: Episode, Mar 27, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (March 27)
Markets
21 words · 13 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| California | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Dario / Amodei | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of War | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Silicon Valley | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Alignment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Best Friend | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Seminar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sam / Altman | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Palantir | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-all-in-podcast-march-27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP