# World News Tonight (world-news-tonight) · tv_episode 2026-08-04 · 18 words · K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04 · as_of 2026-10-24T17:29:12Z
# scope K host_or_reporter · n/y settled before 2026-08-04 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWORLDNEWSMENTION-26AUG04 ({word} = w of K rows): If any host or reporter says {word} as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	16	13	0.81	YYYYYYnYYY	0.67	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	18	13	0.72	YYYYYnYYYn	0.61	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	7	4	0.57	nnnYYYY	0.53	hist	yes
Blanche	blanche	1	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	0.51	hist	yes
Fire / Wildfire	fire|wildfire	1	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.39	hist	no
Kalshi	kalshi	1	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
ICE	ice	1	12	4	0.33	YYnnnnnnnn	0.3	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	12	2	0.17	nnnYnnnnnY	0.28	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	15	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Boat	boat	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Cyberattack / Cyber Attack	cyber attack|cyberattack	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
In-N-Out	in n out	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
IRS	irs	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no
Max Miller	max miller	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Moreno	moreno	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
Spider-Man	spider man	1	0	0			0.4	prior	yes
WestJet	westjet	1	0	0			0.4	prior	no