# Tim Walz (tim-walz) · speech 2026-01-15 · 14 words · K k:KXWALZMENTION-26JAN15 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:02:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-01-15 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXWALZMENTION-26JAN15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Tim Walz says {word} as part of statewide address on January 14th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Fraud	fraud	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	yes
Race / Racism / Racist	race|racism|racist	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	no
Republican	republican	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	no
Trump	trump	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	yes
Childcare / Child Care	child care|childcare	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	hist	no
Learing	learing	1	0	0	n	0.34	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	2	0	0	nn	0.29	hist	no
Billion	billion	2	0	0	nn	0.29	hist	no
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	2	0	0	nn	0.29	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Greenland	greenland	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Investigate / Investigating / Investigation	investigate|investigating|investigation	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Protest / Protester	protest|protester	0	0			0.41	prior	yes