# JD Vance (jd-vance) · tv_episode 2025-03-14 · 22 words · K k:KXVANCEINGRAHAM-25MAR14 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:49:04Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-03-14 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEINGRAHAM-25MAR14 ({word} = w of K rows): If J.D. Vance says {word} as part of on Ingraham Angle, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Iran	iran	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	1	1	Y	0.45	hist	no
Couch	couch	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.34	hist	no
Biden	biden	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Chuck / Schumer	chuck|schumer	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Export	export	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Gaza	gaza	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Hegseth	hegseth	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Homan	homan	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Hostage	hostage	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Import	import	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Lebanon	lebanon	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Linda / McMahon	linda|mcmahon	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Meme	meme	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Recession	recession	0	0			0.36	prior	no
St. Patrick's / St. Paddy's	st paddy|st patrick	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Stock market	stock market	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Tariff	tariff	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Tesla	tesla	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	0	0			0.36	prior	yes