# Ted Cruz (ted-cruz) · speech 2026-09-10 · 12 words · K k:KXTCRUMENTION-26SEP10 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:47:52Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-10 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2026-03-01..2026-08-30 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTCRUMENTION-26SEP10 ({word} = w of K rows): If Ted Cruz says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	0	0	n	2	1	0.32	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	0	0	n	2	2	0.32	hist	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.32	hist	no
Talarico	talarico	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.32	hist	yes
Election / Midterm	election|midterm	0	0			2	1	0.32	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	0	0			2	0	0.39	prior	no
Border	border	0	0			2	1	0.39	prior	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	0	0			2	0	0.39	prior	no
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional	constitution|constitutional|unconstitutional	0	0			2	1	0.39	prior	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			2	1	0.39	prior	no
Tax	tax	0	0			2	1	0.39	prior	no
Trump	trump	0	0			2	2	0.39	prior	yes