Will “Threat” be said on Survivor next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Threat” was said on Survivor in 9 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (82%), most recently on May 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
64%from settlement history only · n=11counts: contestants (not the host)
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- contestants (not the host)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Survivor
Threat
- Probability
- 64% · n=11
- Settled
- 9/11 (82%)
Next listing counts: contestants (not the host)
We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Threat |  Kalshi | Yes |
| May 14, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 7, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Threat | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often is “Threat” said on Survivor?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Threat” was said on Survivor in 9 of 11 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (82%), most recently on May 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Threat” is said on Survivor next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: contestants (not the host).
Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Threat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/threat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=threat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP