Congressional hearings, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Oversight hearing on Venezuelan Drug Traffickers?
Markets
13 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maduro | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War Power | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 43%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-WITN26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP