Kash Patel: Hearing, Mar 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Kash Patel say during the hearing on Worldwide Threats?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cartel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Espionage | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ISIS | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cyberattack / Cyber Attack | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hamas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-KASH26MAR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP