# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-03-18 · 18 words · K k:KXMENTION-CAND26MAR17 · as_of 2026-10-26T17:10:05Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-03-18 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-CAND26MAR17 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Kentucky Senate Democratic debate, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
ICE / DHS	dhs|ice	0	0			0.75	hist	yes
Billionaire	billionaire	3	3	1	YYY	0.73	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	2	2	1	YY	0.73	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	2	2	1	YY	0.73	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			0.68	hist	yes
Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional	constitution|constitutional|unconstitutional	1	1	1	Y	0.67	hist	yes
Housing	housing	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.58	hist	no
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	0	0			0.5	hist	no
Transgender / Gender-Affirming	gender affirming|transgender	0	0			0.48	hist	no
Childcare	childcare	1	0	0	n	0.46	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	9	3	0.33	nnYnnYYnn	0.43	hist	yes
Horse	horse	2	0	0	nn	0.41	hist	yes
Redistrict / Redistricting	redistrict|redistricting	2	0	0	nn	0.38	hist	no
Coal	coal	0	0			0.59	prior	no
Gerrymander / Gerrymandering	gerrymander|gerrymandering	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Iran	iran	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Republican	republican	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Tax Cut	tax cut	0	0			0.59	prior	yes