Bernie Sanders: Rally, Mar 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Illinois Rally?
Markets
22 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 68%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Authoritarian/ Authoritarianism | Yes | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 60%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 59%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 33%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | No | 65%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 63%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Bezos | No | 59%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / DHS | No | 47%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Facebook / Meta | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle Class | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 25%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-BERN26MAR10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP