Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Earth Day Announcement?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 58%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green / Greener | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sustainable / Sustainability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NYPD | Yes | 38%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Electric / EV / Hybrid | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Knicks | Yes | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Park | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump / President | No | 47%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Compost / Composting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Garden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 14%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26APR22C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP