What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Park” next time?

30%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Park”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Park” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Park” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 01:08 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Park

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Walter J. McNeil, President, Edenwald Houses Tenant AssociationotherMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…have all this beautiful space and beautiful apartments, beautiful doorways, lobbies, beautiful parks. We have a beautiful track and field where we can walk the…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…cause of violence at its root. On street corners and bus stops, on park benches and at bodega counters, mediating conflicts before they become deadly.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…boast 12,000 miles of sidewalks, 12,000 acres of green space in our parks, roughly 12,000 bodegas and more than 12,000 yellow taxis. The crystal ball…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Delivers Remarks at NYPD Memorial Wall With Commissioner Jessica S. Tisch · Oct 13, 2026In transcript

I'm also proud to be here alongside Battery Park Association President Raju Mann, our NYPD Chief of Department Mike LiPetri, NYPD First Deputy Commissioner Tania…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…first question, I think that there has to be engagement from the Parks Department when it comes to the creation of a monument like this.…