# The Rachel Maddow Show (the-rachel-maddow-show) · tv_episode 2026-05-11 · 17 words · K k:KXMADDOWMENTION-26MAY11 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:28:48Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-05-11 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMADDOWMENTION-26MAY11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Rachel Maddow says {word} as part of next Rachel Maddow Show , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Election	election	7	5	0.71	nnYYYYY	0.56	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	2	2	1	YY	0.53	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	6	4	0.67	YnYYnY	0.51	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	12	6	0.5	nnYYYYYYnn	0.47	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.4	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.4	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.34	hist	no
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.31	hist	no
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto|cryptocurrency	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	no
Kash / Patel	kash|patel	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	no
Lincoln	lincoln	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	yes
Prediction Market	prediction market	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	11	2	0.18	nYnnnnYnnn	0.29	hist	yes
Blockade	blockade	3	0	0	nnn	0.28	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Redistrict / Redistricting	redistrict|redistricting	0	0			0.4	prior	no