# The Rachel Maddow Show (the-rachel-maddow-show) · tv_episode 2026-04-13 · 24 words · K k:KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR13 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:13:34Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-04-13 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMADDOWMENTION-26APR13 ({word} = w of K rows): If Rachel Maddow says {word} as part of next Rachel Maddow Show, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Hormuz	hormuz	1	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
Election	election	1	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.6	hist	yes
Prison / Jail	jail|prison	1	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	yes
Russia	russia	1	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	2	2	1	YY	0.56	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	8	4	0.5	nnnnYYYY	0.55	hist	yes
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional	constitution|constitutional|unconstitutional	1	2	2	1	YY	0.54	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	2	2	1	YY	0.53	hist	yes
Cuba	cuba	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.44	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.44	hist	yes
China	china	1	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.39	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
Allah	allah	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	no
NATO	nato	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	hist	yes
JD / Vance	jd|vance	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.36	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	no
Venezuela / Maduro	maduro|venezuela	1	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	1	7	1	0.14	nnYnnnn	0.31	hist	yes
California	california	1	0	0			0.43	prior	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	0	0			0.43	prior	no
DoorDash / McDonalds	doordash|mcdonald	1	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Orban	orban	1	0	0			0.43	prior	yes
Pakistan	pakistan	1	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Pope	pope	1	0	0			0.43	prior	yes