Jacob Frey: Interview, Feb 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Jacob Frey say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
10 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invaded / Invading / Invasion | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination | No | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Walz / Governor | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFREYMENTION-26FEB13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP