# Joe Biden (joe-biden) · speech 2026-02-28 · 16 words · K k:KXBIDENMENTION-26FEB28 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:11:38Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-28 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBIDENMENTION-26FEB28 ({word} = w of K rows): If Joe Biden says {word} as part of reception to honor 2020 victory, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Republican	republican	2	2	1	YY	0.51	hist	no
Democracy	democracy	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	0.5	hist	yes
Trump	trump	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	0.46	hist	yes
Election	election	1	1	1	Y	0.44	hist	yes
China	china	2	1	0.5	nY	0.4	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	1	1	Y	0.39	hist	yes
Covid / Pandemic	covid|pandemic	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.33	hist	no
Kamala / Harris	harris|kamala	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.29	hist	no
Obama	obama	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	0.29	hist	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	0	0	n	0.27	hist	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	yes
Midterm	midterm	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	4	0	0	nnnn	0.19	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	0	0			0.31	prior	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	0	0			0.31	prior	yes