NYT front-page headlines, October 5–11, 2026
In the week ending Oct 11, 2026, 11 of the 15 words Polymarket listed appeared in front-page headlines; Parrot’s count agreed with 14 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 15- Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 73%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Justice / Judge | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Peace | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Star | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Brazil | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prize | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Woman | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Space | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Japan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsPrint page (OCR) · The New York Times, front page (print) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
2 matches for “Party”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
Deadly Shooting at Block Party
Thousands of Violent Messages Targeting U.S. Politicians Across Party Lines
Where the listed words were said
Deal Meshes Russian Oil, Ukraine and Trump Allies
Justices Tangle in Climate Case
Shadow Fleet for Iran’s Oil
Peace Prize Goes to a Jurist Who Rebuked Israel
‘Hamilton’ Star, Back Onstage
‘Phoenix Boys’ Manage a Pipeline to Mexico
An Unexpected Wave for Brazil’s Right Wing
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-front-page:2026-10-11:front_page · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-front-page:2026-10-11:front_page · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP