What is the probability “Trade” appears on the NYT front page next time?

39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Will “Trade” appear on the next NYT front page?

Name: NYT front page: “Trade” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trade” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 11, 2026.

Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Aug 30, 2026 – Oct 18, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 4.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: anyone

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 03:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The New York Times (front page)

Trade

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 8 front pages: said in 4 of 8

Next listing counts: anyone

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Tuesday, September 22otherNYT front-page headlines, September 21–27, 2026 · Sep 27, 2026In transcript

A Trade Truce With Thorns

Wednesday, September 9otherNYT front-page headlines, September 7–13, 2026 · Sep 13, 2026In transcript

A WIDENING TRADE WAR

Wednesday, September 2otherNYT front-page headlines, August 31–September 6, 2026 · Sep 6, 2026In transcript

U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (October 5 - October 11) · not said

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 28 - October 4) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 21 - September 27) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 14 - September 20) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (September 7 - September 13) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 24 - August 30) · not listed

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What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 17 - August 23) · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 10 - August 16) · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 11, 2026	Trade	Polymarket	No	0

Questions

How often does “Trade” appear on the NYT front page?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trade” did not appear on the NYT front page on the only day with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Oct 11, 2026.
What is the probability “Trade” appears on the NYT front page next time?: 39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: anyone.

Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Trade’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/trade (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=trade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP