The Beat with Ari Melber (MS NOW), October 1, 2026
On the Oct 1, 2026 episode of The Beat with Ari Melber, 8 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 12 | 31 | ✓ | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 5 | 8 | ✓ | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 4 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 3 | 8 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 2 | 7 | ✓ | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vance | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
1 match for “Election”; counts and timings only, no caption text.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-beat-with-ari-melber:2026-10-01:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-beat-with-ari-melber:2026-10-01:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP