Toll Brothers (TOL): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Aug 19, 2026
On its Aug 19, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Toll Brothers said 9 of the 14 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 14 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
14 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 14 of 14- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incentive | Yes | 12 | 17 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Spec Home | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Buffington / Arkansas | Yes | 4 | 6 | ✓ | 67%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Mortgage | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Lumber | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 54%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Florida | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cash Buyer / All Cash | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 74%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Land Bank / Land Banking | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 71%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Customize / Customization | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 60%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Apartment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 82%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 65%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| California | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Buyback | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 34%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Move-Up Buyer | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
4 matches for “Spec Home”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…inventory. During the third quarter, we continued to reduce our inventory of spec homes. At quarter end, finished specs averaged 1.9 homes per community, down…
Our objective is to sell spec homes as early as possible in the construction cycle, when incentives are typically lower and customers have greater opportunities…
…build-to-order homes remained stable at approximately nine months. Cycle time for our spec homes is generally about one month shorter than build-to-order homes. Overall, our…
Where the listed words were said
…this backdrop, we are pleased that we were able to increase sales by 5% year-over-year, modestly reduce incentives, and maintain our margins in the quarter.
Hey, Rafe. We are super excited about Buffington. They joined our team in May. We've had a typical summer. They have contributed with about half…
…our community count. While orders improved, the overall sales environment remained subdued, with low consumer confidence and elevated mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand.
Hey, Trevor, this is Seth. Our build costs are flat. Lumber is slightly up and a potential headwind, but those cost increases have been offset…
…able to execute this way is a couple things. We have been land banking now for a few years, still carefully and modestly, but as…
…Studios in every market that are spectacular, where our clients go and are blown away by all the choices they have to customize their homes.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/toll-brothers:2026-08-19:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=toll-brothers:2026-08-19:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP