Face the Nation (CBS), March 1, 2026
On the Mar 1, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 5 of the 13 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
Updated
Markets
13 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 6 | 32 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 6 | 17 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 2 | 24 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | Yes | 2 | 17 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uranium | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Assassinate / Assassination | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress / Congressional | No | 0 | 15 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
2 matches for “Uranium”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…stop enriching. No matter what, they were going to continue to enrich uranium. They would not discuss zero enrichment. They claimed a right to enrich…
Where the listed words were said
…no doubt that a year ago Iran had an active and ongoing nuclear weapons program. We took out the vast majority of that at the…
President Trump's decision to launch this decisive action against Iran is the single most important decision of his presidency. I think he laid out powerfully…
…underground facilities, facilities like Fordo, which was built into the base of a mountain. The bunker buster bombs we used, Israel doesn't have those bombs.
…provide more than 90 percent of the funding for Hezbollah. The Iranian ayatollah was, until yesterday, actively trying to murder the president of the United…
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