Face the Nation (CBS), January 25, 2026
On the Jan 25, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 8 of the 23 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 23 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
23 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 23 of 23
Kalshibacktest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 16 | 42 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | 3 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / Homeland | Yes | 2 | 42 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | 1 | 8 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 1 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 0 | 14 | ✓ | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Governor / Walz | No | 0 | 12 | ✓ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 0 | 13 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Child / Children | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mayor / Frey | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retaliate / Retaliation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget / Spending | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Impeach | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
Well, I don't question the credibility of ICE. They're doing an incredibly hard job. They're – look, we are all – just feel sorry about…
These tactics are very obviously not safe, and it is generating a lot of outrage and fear in the community.
Well, Joe Biden – Joe Biden allowed millions of people to come into our country illegally, including very violent people, Margaret. People from prisons in…
…or destruction in the city. And it doesn't matter whether it's because ICE is there or someone from the community is there. We are doing…
There were attempts yesterday to begin the investigation. I do not know what, if anything, was conducted yesterday. I do know that, while they were…
…that defunded their police. That's not the chief's fault. That's the failed Democrat leaders' fault. But, at the same time, when they defund the police,…
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