Will “Shutdown / Shut Down” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 41% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the Democrats are bringing, you look about the fact that, in California, this past year they shut down two refineries, they are against fossil fuels.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…you store diesel for, when all the Russian exports of diesel are shut down, when the Chinese have said, we're not going to deliver any…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Shutdown / Shut Down” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Shutdown / Shut Down” was said on Face the Nation in 1 of 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Feb 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Shutdown / Shut Down” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP