United Airlines (UAL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 21, 2026
On its Jan 21, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), United Airlines said 8 of the 12 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newark | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| On-Time / On Time | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 60%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Record | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Union | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Weather | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
3 matches for “Disruption”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…Continued investments in the travel experience, communication and reliability helped us navigate disruption and deliver for our customers. Our strong Net Promoter Scores for the…
…decisive actions and customer-friendly policies and commitment to transparent communication especially during disruptions. Toby will share in more detail the specific actions we took to…
…to move the same number of customers more efficiently and reducing further disruption. Even with these changes, total cancellations were only approximately 4% of departures…
Where the listed words were said
…Glen and Andrew Nocella as they were dismantling CALight and building the Newark and Houston hubs that we at United are now proud to call…
…airports due to staffing and system constraints from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. We work closely with FAA leadership to swiftly implement the reductions, and…
…second year in a row. For the year, United ranked #2 in on-time departures and #2 in cancellations. Our United Express operation delivered 134 days…
…high note. United delivered the best operation in the industry over the holidays, ranking #1 in on-time departures and on-time arrivals. We canceled less than…
…they sit or what they pay. Our United Signature Interior mods and Starlink installs are now moving at pace and will be completed in 2027,…
…labor, we are currently in active negotiations with 4 of our labor unions. We look forward to reaching industry-leading contracts with these groups, and we'll…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/united-airlines:2026-01-21:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=united-airlines:2026-01-21:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP