United Airlines (UAL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jan 21, 2026
On its Jan 21, 2026 earnings call (FY25 Q4), United Airlines said 8 of the 12 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newark | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 46%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| On-Time / On Time | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 84%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Holiday | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 60%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 84%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Record | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Union | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Weather | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
8 matches for “Demand”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…cabin weakness is due to unprofitable capacity offered by other large spill demand U.S. carriers as ULCC capacity becomes less relevant. We also have a…
…focus will be new seasonal capacity shaping of our long-haul schedule. Peak demand for international travel has spread from the second and third quarters to…
…finally, we are using sophisticated technology to help model -- to model demand for our tech ops organization and that's leading to more productive technicians,…
…and this last -- past year was the high watermark. So we'll manage capacity as appropriate for demand, but that's the guidance we're giving today.
…considering the situation we're facing there. So we remain bullish, and business demand looks really pretty amazing right now and we'll see if that continues.…
Where the listed words were said
…Glen and Andrew Nocella as they were dismantling CALight and building the Newark and Houston hubs that we at United are now proud to call…
…Promoter Score. And during the month of November, amid an unprecedented government shutdown and real-time flight reductions, we had the best NPS month in the…
…second year in a row. For the year, United ranked #2 in on-time departures and #2 in cancellations. Our United Express operation delivered 134 days…
…high note. United delivered the best operation in the industry over the holidays, ranking #1 in on-time departures and on-time arrivals. We canceled less than…
…they sit or what they pay. Our United Signature Interior mods and Starlink installs are now moving at pace and will be completed in 2027,…
…labor, we are currently in active negotiations with 4 of our labor unions. We look forward to reaching industry-leading contracts with these groups, and we'll…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/united-airlines:2026-01-21:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=united-airlines:2026-01-21:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP