Apple (AAPL): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Oct 30, 2025
On its Oct 30, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Apple said 8 of the 13 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 79%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| China | Yes | 5 | 9 | ✓ | 91%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Apple Intelligence | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 94%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Formula 1 / F1 | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 53%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Wearable | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 86%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Siri | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 74%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Apple Pay | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| The Studio | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Streaming | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Widget | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| M3 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Modem | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “China”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…like India and the UAE and new locations in the U.S. and China. I was also in Tokyo last month for the opening of the…
…from World Panel, iPhone was a top-selling model in the U.S., Urban China, the U.K., France, Australia and Japan. We continue to see very high…
…of Asia Pacific as well as a September quarter record in Greater China. The majority of categories saw a sequential acceleration. And as Tim mentioned,…
Tim, can you talk a little bit about iPhone in China specifically? How is that going to trend in the December quarter? And have you…
Got it. And then if I just go back to the China discussion for a minute, the performance in China, at least in September quarter…
Where the listed words were said
…educational programming to train and support American businesses with our new Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit. And we're continuing to invest in innovation and user…
Yes. The Greater China revenue was down 4% in the -- year-over-year in the September quarter. It was driven by iPhone and if you look…
…products the very best place to experience the power of AI. With Apple Intelligence, we've introduced dozens of new features that are powerful, intuitive, private…
…the morning show. And soon, Apple TV will be the destination for F1 fans across the U.S. on track Day, thanks to a new partnership…
…makes every interaction delightful with its thin, light and portable design. In Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue was $9 billion. As I mentioned earlier, we…
…for users around the world. We're also excited for our more personalized Siri. We're making good progress on it. And as we've shared, we expect…
…and expand the reach of our services offerings. From additional markets for Apple Pay, now available in nearly 90 countries, to AppleCare One, a great…
…celebrated a big night at this year's Emmy Awards with 22 wins. The studio led the night with 13 wins the most of any comedy…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/apple:2025-10-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=apple:2025-10-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP