Will Apple say “China”?
Apple said “China” 6 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 7, 12, 10, 15, 9, 16, 9, 6 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Apple said “China” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (86%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 95% (n=7, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Apple
China
- Probability
- 95% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last calls
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
6 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…pleased to see strength across the board with June quarter records in the U.S., Latin America, Western Europe, India, China Mainland, Japan, and Southeast Asia.
…and an all-time record in emerging markets with particular strength in Greater China, where we had an all-time revenue record. In addition, we achieved all-time…
Counts: company speakers + operator
7 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 4 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…double digits in every geographic segment, including strong double-digit growth in Greater China and the rest of Asia Pacific. We also achieved March quarter revenue…
…the majority of markets we track, including the U.S., Latin America, Greater China, Western Europe, India, Japan, and Southeast Asia. The iPhone active installed base…
Counts: company speakers + operator
13 counted (5 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…markets, which includes India, where we saw strong double-digit revenue growth. Greater China also grew 38% year over year, driven by iPhone, which had record…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | China |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | China | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | China | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | China | Polymarket | Yes | 15 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 12 |
| May 1, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
Questions
- How many times did Apple say “China” on its last earnings call?
- Apple said “China” 6 times on its Jul 30, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 8 calls: 7, 12, 10, 15, 9, 16, 9, 6 times.
- How often does Apple say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Apple said “China” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 1, 2025 (86%), most recently on Jul 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Apple says “China” next time?
- 95%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Apple: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/AAPL/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=apple&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=apple&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP