United Airlines (UAL): FY25 Q3 earnings call, Oct 16, 2025
On its Oct 16, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q3), United Airlines said 8 of the 13 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 13 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
13 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 13- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newark | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 87%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Starlink 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 9 | ✓ | 61%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| On-Time / On Time | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| ATC | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Weather | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 65%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Holiday | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 42%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Union | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Record | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 83%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cargo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 64%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
20 matches for “Demand”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…quarters, United's international flights in Q3 had PRASM down 7.1%. Global long-haul demand continues to spread both earlier and later in the year out of…
…our history, 3 of the remaining 4 occurred in September 2025. Leisure demand is also healthy as we head into Q4. Not unlike 2024, capacity…
…continue to be scaled back, although the timing remains uncertain. While the supply/demand imbalance did impact United's profits in the third quarter, we can report…
…negative in Q3 2026. United's business model now has a more balanced demand levels across more of the year as our increasingly optimal mix between…
…versus commodity airlines, they only see profit opportunities on peak leisure travel demand days or months. I think it's interesting to note, profitability is now…
Where the listed words were said
…and the administration for their support and leadership on the improvement at Newark. We are pleased with the FAA's announcement that flights in Newark will…
…clear proof that the investments being made are working. Yesterday, our first Starlink Equipped Boeing 737-800 took off from Newark following FAA certification last month.…
…them a competitively priced ticket. We offer them the best app and on-time flight power in every seat, seatback screens, a great loyalty program, just…
…with these volumes as well as significant summer weather disruptions and system-wide ATC challenges, our operation was resilient this quarter. The third quarter marked our…
…we calibrated the range of earnings per share for Q4 with government shutdown in mind. It's one active [indiscernible], but we've got reasonable room there…
…because most of our expense is in areas we can't control, like union contracts, airport fees, fuel, et cetera, or by adding utilization flying late…
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