Microsoft (MSFT): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jul 30, 2025
On its Jul 30, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Microsoft said 14 of the 22 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 43 | 52 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 37 | 38 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 36 | 41 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 26 | 31 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 23 | 24 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| M365 | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Teams | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Monetization | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| DeepSeek | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| more with Less | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cost structure | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulatory / regulation / regulator | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Enterprise AI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
19 matches for “GitHub”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…also seeing great traction among specific roles and functions, starting with developers. GitHub Copilot continues to have great momentum in IDE with Agent Mode and…
…to their own codebases, and 90% of the Fortune 100 now use GitHub Copilot. More broadly, GitHub usage and repos are seeing explosive growth because…
…or GitHub Copilot, are generating more pull requests and more repos on GitHub. And our Code Review Agent is being used heavily across the platform,…
…increasingly inside of a user interaction. I think a good example is GitHub Copilot. It got started as code completions on an IDE. Then we…
…asynchronously, right? So all those 4 things are now part of essentially GitHub. And by the way, it also turns out that every other tool…
Where the listed words were said
…seen. To that end, we are building the most comprehensive suite of AI products and tech stack at massive scale. And to provide more context,…
…have over 400 data centers across 70 regions, more than any other cloud provider. There is a lot of talk in the industry about building…
…are becoming embedded in our daily work and life. Our family of Copilot apps has surpassed 100 million monthly active users across commercial and consumer.…
…scale our own data center capacity faster than any other competitor. Every Azure region is now AI-first. All of our regions can now support liquid…
…and workflow and work artifacts. We rolled out our biggest update to Microsoft 365 Copilot to date this quarter, bringing together chat, search, create, notebooks…
…our AI infrastructure, partially offset by continued efficiency gains in Azure and M365 Commercial Cloud. Company gross margin percentage was 69%, down 1 point year-over-year,…
…this quarter. Nestle, for example, migrated more than 200 SAP instances, 10,000-plus servers, 1.2 petabytes of data to Azure with near 0 business disruption. That…
…in engagement and successful sessions. And we are bringing Copilot to every Windows 11 PC. With Copilot Vision, you can share your screen with Copilot…
…to talk about 2 consumer businesses of ours with massive end-user reach: LinkedIn and Xbox. LinkedIn is home to 1.2 billion members with 4 consecutive…
…the first weeks of availability. And we have introduced group-level agents in Teams like Facilitator and Interpreter, which generate real-time translation and notes in meetings.…
…DB and Azure PostgreSQL are both powering mission- critical workloads at scale. OpenAI, for example, uses Cosmos DB in the hot path of every ChatGPT…
…introducing agents across hiring as well as sales. When it comes to Gaming, we have 500 million monthly active users across platforms and devices. We…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-07-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-07-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP