Microsoft (MSFT): FY25 Q4 earnings call, Jul 30, 2025
On its Jul 30, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q4), Microsoft said 14 of the 22 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 43 | 52 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cloud | Yes | 37 | 38 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Copilot | Yes | 36 | 41 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Azure | Yes | 26 | 31 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| M365 / Microsoft 365 | Yes | 23 | 24 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| M365 | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Server | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 92%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Windows | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 93%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Teams | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Gaming | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Monetization | Yes | 3 | 4 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| DeepSeek | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Activision | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Phi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| more with Less | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cost structure | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 27%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulatory / regulation / regulator | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Enterprise AI | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Stargate | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
10 matches for “Capacity”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…multi-gigawatt data centers. We stood up more than 2 gigawatts of new capacity over the past 12 months alone. And we continue to scale our…
…generally in line with expectations. And while we brought additional data center capacity online this quarter, demand remains higher than supply. In our on-premises server…
…mix of short-lived assets. Due to the timing of delivery of additional capacity in H1, including large finance lease sites, we expect growth rates in…
…have quarterly variability in year-on-year growth rates depending on the timing of capacity delivery and when it comes online, as well as from in-period revenue…
…on a significant base. Even as we continue bringing more data center capacity online, we currently expect to remain capacity- constrained through the first half…
Where the listed words were said
…seen. To that end, we are building the most comprehensive suite of AI products and tech stack at massive scale. And to provide more context,…
…year ago. Beyond the AI fleet, we continue to build our commercial cloud to address customers' unique data residency and sovereignty requirements. This quarter, we…
…are becoming embedded in our daily work and life. Our family of Copilot apps has surpassed 100 million monthly active users across commercial and consumer.…
…more than 200 SAP instances, 10,000-plus servers, 1.2 petabytes of data to Azure with near 0 business disruption. That makes it one of the largest…
…and workflow and work artifacts. We rolled out our biggest update to Microsoft 365 Copilot to date this quarter, bringing together chat, search, create, notebooks…
…our AI infrastructure, partially offset by continued efficiency gains in Azure and M365 Commercial Cloud. Company gross margin percentage was 69%, down 1 point year-over-year,…
…in constant currency, ahead of expectations, driven by Azure and our on-premises server business. In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 39%, significantly ahead…
…in engagement and successful sessions. And we are bringing Copilot to every Windows 11 PC. With Copilot Vision, you can share your screen with Copilot…
…to talk about 2 consumer businesses of ours with massive end-user reach: LinkedIn and Xbox. LinkedIn is home to 1.2 billion members with 4 consecutive…
…the first weeks of availability. And we have introduced group-level agents in Teams like Facilitator and Interpreter, which generate real-time translation and notes in meetings.…
…DB and Azure PostgreSQL are both powering mission- critical workloads at scale. OpenAI, for example, uses Cosmos DB in the hot path of every ChatGPT…
…introducing agents across hiring as well as sales. When it comes to Gaming, we have 500 million monthly active users across platforms and devices. We…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/microsoft:2025-07-30:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=microsoft:2025-07-30:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP