Will NASA say “Mars / Moon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Mars / Moon” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 31, 2026.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Jan 30, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
NASA
Mars / Moon
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for NASA yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Mars / Moon |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does NASA say “Mars / Moon”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Mars / Moon” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jan 31, 2026.
- What is the probability NASA says “Mars / Moon” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “NASA: ‘Mars / Moon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/nasa/words/mar-or-moon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nasa&word=mar%20%2F%20moon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nasa&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP