What is the probability “Peace” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?

39%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Peace” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Name: Prime Minister's Questions: “Peace” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Peace” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 25, 2026.

Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 20:08 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Prime Minister's Questions

Peace

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 PMQs: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Matt Turmaine (Watford) (Lab)otherPrime Minister's Questions, 15 July 2026 · Jul 15, 2026In transcript

…was an honour to march with people from across Watford on a peace walk in my constituency recently. Earlier this year, we saw an attack…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

David LammyspeakerPrime Minister's Questions, 8 July 2026 · Jul 8, 2026In transcript

…with us today. We hope that this pardon brings a measure of peace to Ruth Ellis’s family, who have carried the weight of what happened…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.