Will “Oil” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (60%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Oil
- Probability
- 40% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we have lost is the confidence to make tough decisions. Will the Prime Minister now overturn Labour’s ban on all new oil and gas licences?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…In July, he said that he would approve the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields in the North sea. What is he waiting for?…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…today on quasi-judicial decisions, but we will take a pragmatic approach to oil and gas, as I have said before at the Dispatch Box. Let…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Oil” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (60%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “Oil” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP