Will “Conservative” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Conservative” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Conservative
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 3 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that there were no cheers from Members on the Government Benches. The Conservatives first approved Jackdaw in 2022. Rather than fighting the leftie activists who…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…that out and look straight at it in a way that the Conservatives did not. I have a quote here from the right hon. Lady…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…spending was 2.3% of GDP and fell during 14 years of a Conservative Government. On this issue, I think we should do more problem solving…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…former industrial heartland to the fastest-growing city region in the country. [Interruption.] Conservative Members complain, but where are their ideas about growth? When they were…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…family, but it is particularly keenly felt by political colleagues in the Conservative party—her party for many years—and in Reform as well. That is why…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Conservative |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Conservative | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Conservative | Polymarket | No | 11 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often is “Conservative” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Conservative” was said at the Prime Minister's Questions on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026.
- What is the probability “Conservative” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Conservative’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/conservative (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=conservative · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP