Will “Chagos” be said at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Chagos” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Chagos
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Government’s shameful attempts to hand over the sovereignty of the strategically important Chagos islands, will the Prime Minister confirm that this time the Government will…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…he is funding though, Mr Speaker—Keir Starmer’s £35 billion surrender of the Chagos islands and its crucial military base. That is British sovereign territory. That…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Q15. From slashing winter fuel payments to surrendering the Chagos Islands, this Prime Minister has got every major decision wrong. It is no wonder that…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2026 | Chagos |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often is “Chagos” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Chagos” was not said at the Prime Minister's Questions on the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 12, 2026.
- What is the probability “Chagos” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Chagos’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/chago (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=chago · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=prime-ministers-questions&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP