What is the probability “Trump Effect” is said at the White House press briefing next time?

40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will “Trump Effect” be said at the next White House press briefing?

Name: White House press briefing: “Trump Effect” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump Effect” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2025.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 19:34 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Trump Effect

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 press briefings: said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Apr 22, 2025	Trump Effect	Polymarket	Yes	1

Questions

How often is “Trump Effect” said at the White House press briefing?: As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump Effect” was said at the White House press briefing on the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2025.
What is the probability “Trump Effect” is said at the White House press briefing next time?: 40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Trump Effect’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/trump-effect (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=trump%20effect · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP