What is the probability “Tren de Aragua” is said at the White House press briefing next time?

37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Will “Tren de Aragua” be said at the next White House press briefing?

Name: White House press briefing: “Tren de Aragua” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 27, 2026, “Tren de Aragua” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.

37%from settlement history only · n=2counts: role: press secretary

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: role: press secretary

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

Updated Oct 27, 2026, 01:15 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Tren de Aragua

Probability: 37% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 press briefings: said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Apr 22, 2025	Tren de Aragua	Kalshi	No	0
Apr 11, 2025	Tren de Aragua	Polymarket	No	0

Questions

How often is “Tren de Aragua” said at the White House press briefing?: As of Oct 27, 2026, “Tren de Aragua” was not said at the White House press briefing on any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 11, 2025.
What is the probability “Tren de Aragua” is said at the White House press briefing next time?: 37%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Tren de Aragua’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/tren-de-aragua (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=tren%20de%20aragua · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP