Will “Transgender” be said at the next White House press briefing?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Transgender” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press briefings we have transcripts for (May 28, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, role: press secretary) in 0 of them.

31%from settlement history only · n=6counts: role: press secretary
Last 10
1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
role: press secretary

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=transgender

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

White House press briefing

Transgender

Probability
31% · n=6
Settled
1/6 (17%)
Last 8 press briefings
said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: role: press secretary

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Karoline Leavitt say in the next press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Dr. Oz say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Scott Bessent say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will the Press Secretary say during the next White House press briefing? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 14, 2026TransgenderPolymarketNo–
Mar 31, 2026TransgenderKalshiNo0
Mar 10, 2026TransgenderPolymarketYes–
Oct 1, 2025TransgenderPolymarketNo0
Aug 29, 2025TransgenderKalshiNo0
Jul 31, 2025TransgenderKalshiNo0

Questions

How often is “Transgender” said at the White House press briefing?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Transgender” was said at the White House press briefing on 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 31, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026.
What is the probability “Transgender” is said at the White House press briefing next time?
31%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: role: press secretary.

Cite parrot.markets, “White House press briefing: ‘Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/white-house-press-briefing/words/transgender (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=white-house-press-briefing&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP